The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

As gun policy discussions unfold in the wake of mass shooter incidents, they routinely end in three buckets. There’s the “tyranny can never happen here” bucket, which the left has mostly abdicated in the wake of Trump winning after they called (and still call) him a tyrant. There’s the “you can’t fight the army with small arms” bucket, which is increasingly unsound given our ongoing decade-and-a-half war with Afghani tribal goat herders. And there’s the “what the hell do you need an AR-15 for anyway?” bucket, which, by its very language, eschews a fundamental lack of understanding of what those people are thinking. I am not a prepper. But I know a few. Some of the ones I do know are smart. They may not be doing as deep an analysis as I present here, on a mathematical level, but the smart ones are definitely doing it at a subconscious level. If you want to understand the perspectives of others, as everyone in my opinion should strive to do, then you would do well to read to the end of this article. To get where we’re going, we will need to discuss the general framework of disaster mathematics.

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7 Responses to The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

  1. pigpen51 says:

    There are so many upsides to being a prepper, even if all you do is have a couple of cases of H2O in the corner, and a few cases of canned meat and pasta, maybe some flour and sugar, stored in sealed containers, that you really can’t find any downsides to such simple preps.
    It is very cheap to buy cases of water on sale, and if you drink it and replace it, I doubt that you have to worry about harmful chemicals leeching into the product.
    Canned fish like tuna, and Spam, Treet, maybe some beef stew, and heck, boxed past from the dollar store, will all keep a hell of a long time, and again, just rotate them out once in awhile, eating some of them once a month or so, and you won’t have to worry about them at all.
    As far as guns go, while I encourage everyone to have at least one major caliber gun, either a handgun, rifle or shotgun, first make sure that you are able and willing to use it in defense of yourself and your loved ones. Then if you are able to come to grips with that, get some training, and some advice from an informed person that can be trusted to give you straight up good advice. There is no hurry on this part.
    Here is a link that you can use to find an instructor who will be willing to help you. It is set up to help the LGBTQ community, but I would bet that most of the people on the list would help anyone who wishes to learn the beginnings of firearms, in a safe and non threatening environment.

  2. Crawfisher says:

    I have an engineering degree as well, had a mfg plant who said they were reliable. I took a simple calculation, used their historical data, showed they had less than a 16% chance of operating one week (7 days) without a 30 minute downtime event. They were dumbfounded, could not believe it. They averaged a 30 minute event every 2.5 days for an entire year. Simple statistics work, but are difficult to stomach.

  3. B_Rad says:

    I don’t disagree with anything this guy wrote. But I would like to point out two things. Those three buckets belong in one larger bucket titled “Socialism”. After all that is what Libtards are all about. And numero two, in reality, an In Bag will be handier than a go bag.

  4. Dan says:

    Math……a rapidly dying mental skill. Articles like this may as well be written in Bajoran (a fictional Star Trek species). It’s incomprehensible to the majority of people.

    • H says:

      Walking around town (and which town don’t seem to matter) it seems to me intuitive that more people today are interested in METH than MATH.

  5. Steven Lord Of The Universe says:

    From my project management days – it is simple risk management. Make a list of everything/anything that COULD happen. Then rank each one in 2 ways – probable impact (high, medium, low) and probability of occurring ( also high, medium, low). Then put in a quadrangle. Take care of the high impact/ high probability items first to mitigate the possible problems. But watch out for the high impact/low probability ones. Like violent government overthrow

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